The average price of a home sold in B.C. in 2021 is forecast to rise 14.3 per cent to $893,800, according to the BCREA’s second quarter housing forecast. (Source: BCREA Economics)

The average price of a home sold in B.C. in 2021 is forecast to rise 14.3 per cent to $893,800, according to the BCREA’s second quarter housing forecast. (Source: BCREA Economics)

Experts now predict 33.6% rise in B.C. home sales for 2021

BCREA economists also predict home prices to increase by 14.3%

By Paul Henderson

Black Press

There is little question that 2021 will be the biggest year ever in British Columbia real estate sales with average home sale prices similarly hitting new heights.

But while the B.C. Real Estate Association (BCREA) forecasts fading momentum by the end of the year to reduce the number of sales in 2022, prices may continue to rise.

After the immediate lull in sales of just about everything in spring of 2020, several months into the COVID-19 pandemic, home sales in all markets in the province took off.

“The record-setting pace of home sales that began in late fall of 2020 has continued into 2021 with markets across the province eclipsing previous monthly sales records by wide margins,” according to the BCREA’s second quarter housing forecast.

The 94,013 sales in B.C. in 2020 represented a 21.5 per cent increase over 2019, and the average sale price of $781,765 was a 11.6 per cent jump over the $699,000 in 2019.

And 2021 is proving to be even hotter with the BCREA predicting 125,600 home sales, a 33.6 per cent increase over 2020. The average home price is forecast to hit $893,800 in 2021, a 14.3 per cent increase over 2020.

Those sales and price forecasts nearly double predictions made in the first quarter.

RELATED: 16% boom predicted for B.C. real estate sales in 2021: experts

Low mortgage rates coupled with buyers flocking to less populated markets led to the big increases seen over the last eight months. That could slow with a creep up in interest rates and a catch-up in supply, but not any time soon.

“The trajectory of home sales in the second half of 2021 and for 2022 will be highly dependent on the evolution of Canadian mortgage rates,” the BCREA forecasts. “Home sales will likely slow toward the second half of this year. However, even factoring in a second-half slowdown, provincial unit sales are still projected to reach a record.”

As for 2022, the BCREA forecasts a 20.3 per cent drop in sales to 100,150, but a 3.1 per cent increase in the average price of all home types to $921,800.

Broken down by region, BCREA predicts the small Chilliwack and District Real Estate Board to see the biggest increase in sales in 2021 up 51.6 per cent year over year, followed by Greater Vancouver at 40.8 per cent, Powell River Sunshine Coast at 38.2 per cent, and the Interior and BC Northern at 31.9 and 31.1 per cent respectively.

The average price of a home in Greater Vancouver in 2021 is forecast to be $1.174 million, with the Fraser Valley at $969,400, and Victoria at $866,200.

“The supply shock experienced by BC markets during the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic and a sustained listings drought continues to drive price increases in 2021. This is particularly true in smaller markets, many of which have seen inventories of homes for sale fall to all-time lows.”

RELATED: Chilliwack housing market projected to be among B.C.’s hottest in 2021


Do you have something to add to this story, or something else we should report on? Email:
editor@theprogress.com

@PeeJayAitch
Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

Just Posted

The Kootenay International Junior Hockey League met for their AGM and announced a number of new initiatives, new awards and changes in their executive committee, as well as the starting date for the 2021-22 season. Paul Rodgers file.
KIJHL announces start dates for 2021-22 season

Season set to begin Oct. 1 with league still following all health guidelines

South Slocan’s Ti Loran is among the recipients of this year’s Neil Muth Memorial Scholarship. Photo: Submitted
Neil Muth Memorial Scholarships awarded to 4 students

Students in Creston, South Slocan and Revelstoke are sharing the honour

The Independent Investigations Office of BC is looking into a Castlegar incident. File photo
Police watchdog investigating Castlegar incident

IIO: Woman sustained a reportedly self-inflicted injury

A wildfire near Cottonwood Lake was put out by Nelson firefighters Sunday night. Photo: Submitted
Wildfire extinguished near Cottonwood Lake

Lightning-caused fire was near one of Nelson’s water sources

West Kootenay Regional Airport. Photo: Betsy Kline
Central Mountain Air leaving Castlegar airport in July

The airline says market can’t handle two airlines

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau participates in a plenary session at the G7 Summit in Carbis Bay, England on Friday June 11, 2021. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld
Canada donating 13M surplus COVID-19 vaccine doses to poor countries

Trudeau says the government will pay for 87 million shots to be distributed to poor countries

Kelowna-Lake Country MLA Norm Letnick, assistant deputy speaker at the B.C. legislature, presides over committee discussions. The legislature is completing its delayed spring session this week, with most MLAs participating by video conference. (Hansard TV)
B.C.’s daily COVID-19 infections dip below 100 over weekend

Only 68 new cases recorded Monday, four additional deaths

B.C. ambulance station in Revelstoke is expected to get a new system called the Scheduled On-Call (SOC) this fall. (Liam Harrap - Revelstoke Review)
B.C. ambulance changes could put Revelstoke residents at risk, warn local paramedics

Paramedics said to expect a substantial increase in ambulance response time starting this fall

The BC Ferries website went down for a short while Monday morning following a provincial announcement that recreational travel between health authorities can resume Tuesday. (Black Press Media file photo)
BC Ferries’ website crashes in wake of provincial reopening announcement

Website back up now, recreational travel between health regions to resume as of Tuesday

The Kamloops Indian Residential School is photographed using a drone in Kamloops, B.C., Monday, June, 14, 2021. The remains of 215 children were discovered buried near the former school earlier this month. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jonathan Hayward
Communities grapple with what to do with former residential and day schools

Some tear them down as a tool to help healing, others repurpose them as tools for moving forward

FILE – Provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry talks about B.C.’s plan to restart the province during a press conference at Legislature in Victoria, Tuesday, May 25, 2021. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chad Hipolito
B.C. watching U.K.’s COVID struggles but don’t think province will see similar pitfalls

Studies show that one dose of vaccine is only 33 per cent effective in preventing B.1.617.2 spread

RCMP Const. Shelby Patton is shown in this undated handout photo. RCMP say that Patton was hit by an allegedly stolen truck that he had pulled over on Saturday morning in Wolseley, east of Regina. THE CANADIAN PRESS/HO, RCMP
Pair charged in Saskatchewan Mountie’s death make first court appearance

Const. Shelby Patton was hit by an allegedly stolen truck that he had pulled over Saturday morning

David and Collet Stephan leave for a break during an appeal hearing in Calgary on Thursday, March 9, 2017. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Todd Korol
Appeal Court rejects stay for Alberta couple facing third trial in son’s death

Pair accused in their earlier trials of not seeking medical attention for their son sooner

Highway notices like this come down effective June 14. Public health restrictions on non-essential travel and commercial operation have hit local businesses in every corner of B.C. (B.C. government)
Province-wide travel back on in B.C.’s COVID-19 restart plan

Gathering changes include up to 50 people for outdoor events

Most Read