B.C.’s health ministry modelling shows the province tracking closer to South Korea than Hubei province and Northern Italy. (B.C. government)

B.C.’s latest COVID-19 modelling shows restrictions flattening curve

‘This is not the end,’ Dr. Bonnie Henry says of success so far

B.C. continues to see encouraging signs in its efforts to stem the spread of the coronavirus causing COVID-19 illness, provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry says.

Henry and Health Minister Adrian Dix released their second batch of case modelling April 17, showing significant improvement from projections released in the initial study in mid-March. The model results show that B.C.’s case rate and actual intensive care unit admission rate tracking closer to South Korea’s success in controlling the spread, and significantly better than Quebec and Ontario in recent weeks.

“Our actual case rates and hospital and ICU admission rates have been far below what could have been based on other jurisdictions’ experience and data,” Henry said. “We are experiencing a slowing in our rate of new diagnosis over the last few days, and a stabilization of the number of cases we have in hospital and ICU.

“And the difference, really between what could have been and what has happened, is because of the collective actions that we have taken across the province to maintain those safe distances and to stop the chains of transmission.”

With the success in keeping down the number of hospitalized cases of the novel coronavirus, the health ministry is preparing to resume scheduling surgeries beyond the most urgent that have been done as the pandemic began. If there is no surge of new severe COVID-19 cases, that could begin by early May.

RELATED: New survey puts Canada’s response in top 15 globally

RELATED: Federal wage subsidy payments coming in early May

RELATED: B.C. COVID-19 data and graphs up to April 15

Henry emphasized that B.C.’s success is due to public health actions taken earlier than Ontario and Quebec, and not due to “herd immunity” being developed in the B.C. population as exposure has spread.

“Now is not the end, it is not even the beginning of the end, to quote Churchill,” Henry said. “But it is perhaps somewhere near the end of the beginning of this pandemic, and we’re now planning for our future over the coming months.”


@tomfletcherbc
tfletcher@blackpress.ca

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

BC legislatureCoronavirus

Get local stories you won't find anywhere else right to your inbox.
Sign up here

Just Posted

Nakusp RCMP seize large quantity of drugs during seach warrant on May 27

The warrant was conducted in the 300th block of 8th Avenue NW

Possible Kermode Bear spotted near Castlegar

A local resident spotted the white-coloured bear while on an evening trail run on May 27

Morning start: Numerous shipwrecks can be found below Kootenay Lake

Here is your Kootenays’ morning start for Thursday, May 28

Geotechnical work set to get underway at Rossland Museum

Crews will be working at the museum from June 1 to 12

B.C. Minister reflects on Child Care Month

Minister Katrine Conroy is MLA for Kootenay West

Mission prison COVID-19 outbreak ends, 9 new cases in B.C.

New positive test at Port Coquitlam care home

VIDEO: Humpback whales put on quite a show

The ‘playful’ pod lingered by a Campbell River tour operator’s boat for quite some time

Getting hitched at historic B.C. gold rush town still on table during COVID-19 pandemic

Micro-weddings, online visits, offered at Barkerville Historic Town and Park

Revelstoke woman finds welcoming letter on her Alberta-registered truck

There have been multiple reports online of vandalism to vehicles with Alberta licence plates

B.C. businesses ‘can’t shoulder burden’ of COVID-19 sick pay

Trudeau’s plan should be tied to federal emergency aid

B.C. teacher reprimanded for sharing homophobic and sexist memes, making racist comments

Klaus Hardy Breslauer was accused of making a laundry list of concerning decisions as a science teacher

COVID-19: B.C. too dependent on foreign food production workers

New B.C. job site links unemployed with farm, seafood work

Another Asian giant ‘murder hornet’ found in Lower Mainland

This is the farthest east the invasive species has been found so far

Most Read